Climate Change in Central New York

The Paleontological Research Institution is based in Ithaca, NY, and the climate in our region is changing.


Historical Climate Change


Scatter plot showing increasing temperature over time
Graph by Ingrid Zabel for PRI's Earth@Home project (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0 license) with data from the National Centers for Environmental Information

Rising Temperatures

Central New York is getting warmer. From 1950 to 2021, average annual temperature in Tompkins County increased at a rate of 0.3°F per decade.



scatter plot showing increasing rainfall over time
Graph by Ingrid Zabel for PRI's Earth@Home project (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0 license) with data from the National Centers for Environmental Information

More Total Rainfall

Central New York is getting wetter. From 1950 to 2021, total annual precipitation in Tompkins County increased at a rate of 0.87 inches per decade.

Even though precipitation is increasing, by the end of the 21st century Tompkins County is likely to experience more short-term drought. This can happen when higher temperatures lead to increased evaporation of soil moisture, outweighing the increased rainfall.



Climate Projections

How might Central New York's climate change in the future? Scientists use climate models to answer that question. Numerical models predict a range of future climate changes, depending on different scenarios for the actions people take to reduce carbon emissions. When we emit carbon dioxide, methane, and other gases into the atmosphere—mostly through producing and burning fossil fuels—those gases trap heat and warm the planet. The model results shown below use 1) a lower emissions scenario, where emissions peak by mid-21st century and then decline, and 2) a higher emissions scenario where emissions continue to rise through the end of the 21st century.

The historical climate data in these graphs are averaged over the 30-year period of 1976-2005. Early Century is defined as 2015-2044, Mid Century as 2035-2064, and Late Century as 2070-2099.


Warmer Winters

By the late 21st century, Central New Yorkers are likely to experience far fewer freezing winter days than in the late 20th century. Winter precipitation will increasingly fall as rain rather than snow.

 



Extreme Heat

Extreme heat can lead to heat illness and death, increased power outages, loss of agricultural productivity, stress on ecosystems, and dangerous working conditions for outdoor workers.

By the end of the 21st century, Tompkins County summers could have over a month more days with temperatures over 90°F than in the late 20th century.



More Heavy Downpours

Heavy rainfalls can lead to devastating flooding. Models project that by the end of the 21st century, Tompkins County could experience around one more day per year with over an inch of rainfall within a 24-hour period.

One more day per year may not sound like a lot, but a single day of flooding can cause tremendous damage.


Impacts on local plants and wildlife

Download leaflets to learn about the effects of climate change on Central New York’s plants and animals.


Animals and Climate Change


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Image of a fact sheet with a photo of a deer on the cover

Climate Change and Winter


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Image of a fact sheet with a photo of ducks on a pond in winter

Climate Change and Spring


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Image of a fact sheet with a photo of a tree leafing out in spring

Climate Change and Autumn


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Image of a fact sheet with a photo of a seed pod breaking open

Invasive Species and Climate Change


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Image of a fact sheet

Resources for further exploration


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Find out what scientists have learned about climate change and changes in the autumn life cycle stages of trees.

Find more phenology videos on PRI’s YouTube channel.


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Climate Change in Central New York

In this exhibit visitors can learn about the local impacts of climate change in Tompkins County, NY, especially for ecosystems and agriculture. The exhibit also connects visitors to local organizations that are taking climate action.



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Northeast Regional Climate Center at Cornell University

A source of data products, maps, tools, news, and more for the Northeast U.S. Data are available for Ithaca, NY on the NRCC’s Ithaca Climate Page.


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New York State Climate Impacts Assessment

In partnership with leading academic institutions, science organizations, community leaders, and others, New York State is undertaking a comprehensive research effort to better understand and document how climate change is affecting our state, what future impacts may be, and how we can prepare for them.